Value Investors Club / BITCOIN INVESTMENT TRUST (GBTC)

Description

Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) is "the only U.S. publicly traded vehicle that holds bitcoin," it

currently trades OTC and exists to hold bitcoin and serve as a tracker of its “value.”

Due to its recent creation and the novelty / utility of being the only bitcoin fund, GBTC is trading

at ~155% of NAV. The premium started to widen out in May, but really spiked in early June

which was when the "Brexit" news cycle really started picking up (and speculators started

pouring into bitcoin).

The fund is backed by bitcoin in a ~.094 bitcoin to share ratio, but there is a better way to hedge

the product than through bitcoin itself – directly buying shares of the fund in an ongoing

additional share offering provided by the sponsor, which lets you purchase at NAV.

Participating in an additional share offering would enable the purchase of restricted shares at

NAV (currently $63.90). As the shares are restricted, the arbitrage opportunity requires shorting

the publicly traded GBTC and waiting a year for the restricted shares to become fully tradable

before the spread automatically collapses for the investor.

While participating in the additional share offering allows for one to “force-collapse” the spread,

we think the fund is likely an outright short given insiders and other direct investors who own

restricted shares will likely soon be unloading to take advantage of the premium. Additionally,

the Winklevoss twins are finally advancing in their plans to make a bitcoin ETF (which will be

listed on a major exchange).

You can see NAV vs market price here:

http://grayscale.co/bitcoin-investment-trust/#market-performance

Participating in the additional share program (at NAV):

“Qualified accredited investors** can choose to invest directly in the Bitcoin Investment Trust at

the applicable NAV per share. The Bitcoin Investment Trust’s shares are subject to significant

resale and transfer restrictions.”

http://grayscale.co/investors/

I do not hold a position with the issuer such as employment, directorship, or consultancy.
I and/or others I advise hold a material investment in the issuer's securities.

Catalyst

Spread automatically collapses if one chooses to participate in the ongoing additional share offering.

Insiders and others with restricted shares, if rational, will sell once unrestricted (one year restriction due to rule 144a).

Creation of more bitcoin derivative products.

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			2016	2017
Price:	99.00	EPS	0	0
Shares Out. (in M):	2	P/E	0	0
Market Cap (in $M):	178	P/FCF	0	0
Net Debt (in $M):	0	EBIT	0	0
TEV (in $M):	178	TEV/EBIT	0	0
Borrow Cost:	Tight 15-50% cost